Bacillus cereus is a main kind of spoilage bacteria of mild-roast shrimp products,which is a kind of conditional pathogens.It can cause food poisoning mainly by producing diarrhoeal toxins and vomitive toxins.The aim of this research was to establish a probabilistic model to predict the growth/no growth conditions or growth probability of B.cereus.A logistic regression model was established to model the growth/no growth boundaries of B.cereus under the combination of different temperature,water activity and pH value.The results showed that the minimum temperature allowing the growth of B.cereus in Brain Heart Infusion was 9.9℃,the minimum water activity was 0.931,and the minimum pH was 4.5.According to it,the χ2 of the growth/no growth model for B.cereus was 49.73 and P<0.000 1.The results of goodness of fit evaluation for growth/no growth model which was based on logistic regression model were extremely significant.The predicted values also quantized the synergy of environmental factors for Bacillus cereus.This research has reference value for the establishment of growth/no growth model for Bacillus cereus in mild-roast shrimp.